Las Vegas, Nevada Casinos and Poker Gambling

razor · Joined: 21 Dec 2005 Posts: 28 376 credits

If you raise with KK and get reraised (Before the flop)...and you are almost absolutely positive that your opponent doensn't have AA....should you always move in on him/her? The reason why I say this is because twice recently I have been reraised with my KK and twice I put my opponent on A with a solid kicker. Both times they had AQ, and both times the called me all in for all of there chips....a significant amount more that the reraise. Both times an A came on the turn or river to beat me. It feels like I gave the 5 cards to catch their ace instead of 3. I could have just called and then pushed or made a nice bet if an ace didn't come on the flop and they most likely would have folded. I know that I am just stinging because of this but just calling would have been my other option and if I did that I would have walked away with decent pots.
Am I overthinking this or is calling a good option here...What is the best move for long term profit? Remember these were players that I was almost positive did not have AA.

chris · Joined: 13 Jan 2006 Posts: 51 382 credits

The answer is, that it depends...it depends on whether you are better than your opponents. No ur not overthinking, the fact is you ARE thinking and they may not be (calling a strong raise with AQ??!!?? that hand is a significant to a serious dog to ALL 4 of the hands that you are likely to be raising with....Lederer says that AQ doesn't even call in this spot!) And sure enough both of them run into 1 of those 4 hands and they suck you out....and what's worse is that you are a better player than them!!!! MY POINT EXACTLY.

johnf · Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 42 362 credits

The problem with your theory of trying to outplay your oppponent is that I don't believe it is the most profitable one-it is simply the least risky one. The only way I wouldn't push is if I absolutely knew my opponent wouldn't call my all-in unless he had AA. If your opponent is willing to risk all his chips pre-flop with something less than AA or KK then there is no good reason whatsover (in a cash game at least) not to get all the money in.

ballen · Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 22 133 credits

While it is true they get to see the final two cards for free if you push, if you just CALL, they get to see the first THREE cards for free. Anytime you flat call when ahead, you are giving a free card (or cards). I agree with johnf's asessment, that if they will call my all in at least 40% of the time with something less than AA, I'm going to push. Or, if I think they made that play with a small PP (ie, no more money goes in unless they hit a set), I'm going to push.

pritz · Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 29 194 credits

Well it depends where you are playing cause if it's Party Poker, then be prepared to see your KK against AA..

ballen · Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 22 133 credits

lork · Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 37 216 credits

johnf,I see the logic in your theory (obviously since you have math to support it). However, I subscribe to the outplay theory. The reason is this: assuming that the player is a good player and CAN outplay the opponent, both strategies will end up making the same profit in the long run. The difference is that the all-in method results in much larger swings than the outplay method. If you see a flop, you might outplay your opponent and win the hand 85% of the time. Meanwhile, if your opponent calls with AQ, you may only double up 68% of the time. Now, would you rather take down a medium sized pot 85% of the time, or a large pot 68% of the time? That depends on the player, but like I said, I believe both methods get you to the same place in the long run.

arcfinn · Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 26 280 credits

In RING games, I agree to get all the money in. A cash game is math and long term, KK vs. AQ will win something like 2/3 of the time so just get the money in! Also, how do you know they are not overplaying queens or less? Depending on your limits, you don't!

In a tournament situation, well, I admit I am too timid (smart?) to not always play pot odds or when a slight favorite. Being a two to one favorite, I still think it's correct to move in, but then taking a flop if reraised isn't terrible if you and your opponent have large stacks. If the flop comes big cards like AQJ with a flush draw you can get out cheap.

jhasper · Joined: 24 Dec 2005 Posts: 9 81 credits

quickie · Joined: 22 Jan 2006 Posts: 8 108 credits

If you don't know what's in your opponents hole cards, or what could be there, then you shouldn't be pushing it all.

luke · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 5 216 credits

Id move all in as well, youve got the strongest hand and theyre needing to get a bit of luck. All you can do is put your chips in and hope for a call, yep if I was sitting with cowboys Id be wanting my opponent all in on me. AQ is a very good starting hand but its beatable, and you have it beat. If its a decent enough opponent theyll put you on something like AA AK or KK and concede the chips theyd already put in.